Druids and Nyx Forecast: Evening of 2/23

Warm and humid is the story to start the big week of Carnival. Wednesday should see high temperatures approaching 80, and dew points in the upper 60s. Bust the shorts out, because it’s going to be more like early April than February.

Image Thanks To Tropical Tidbits. This is the 12z High-Resolution NAM from 2/21, showing sprinkles possible but what should be a rain free night. Do note the cold air over Texas producing freezing precip, showing there is cold to come but won’t be here for Wednesday (or even Thursday).

The story for Wednesday’s parades is a pretty simple one, there will be southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico that will keep things humid and warm. Lows will only be dropping into the upper 60s south of the lake, meaning low 70s and humid for parade times Wednesday night. Despite the New Orleans heavy focus on parades, the whole region from Lake Charles to Mobile this will hold true for.

The reason for the warmth is a developing area of low pressure to our west, which leads to it pulling mass in towards in. In this case, that’s air from over the Gulf of Mexico the winds will be bringing north. Very easy to see why it’s going to get so warm in the image below. South flow for days bringing late Spring in for a visit.

Image From Tropical Tidbits. This is of the 12z GFS on 2/21. Using this to show the idea, flow off the Gulf yields warm and humid days.

So for the parades, I’m expecting temps in the mid 70s slowly falling to the low 70s.

There should be some cloud cover as well, and certainly some fog for those heading back across the Causeway after the parades. Will have nightly fog until the cold front comes through Friday. There could be some lingering rain chances, but I really don’t think that is going to be much of an issue at all. There isn’t going to be much instability to create convective lift, and looking at the features that QG theory says would provide vertical motion (shown in the images below) there isn’t anything to provide it. That’s going to change Thursday night into Friday morning, but for now…all systems go for a warm first night.

Will be back tomorrow for the Muses forecast.

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