Hangout Fest Forecast: Storms And Dangerous Rip Currents
The summer fun along the Gulf Coast is starting to ramp up. This weekend, Hangout Fest 2022 in Gulf Shores, Alabama gets the beach season rolling. Unfortunately, the weather does not want to cooperate with the festivities. Thunderstorms should be widespread Saturday and Sunday, with likely red flag flying due to the rip currents. As usual, it won’t be an all day washout but be ready to find cover when the thunder does get roaring.
This post is going to look at the synoptic scale features for the weekend and then dive into a day by day forecast.
Shortwave Brings The Stormy Weather
Once Friday rolls around, the ridging that has dominated the work week starts sliding west ahead of an upper level disturbance over Texas. This feature will slide east over the weekend, bringing lift for thunderstorms into the Northern Gulf Coast. In addition, a cold front will be pushing toward the Gulf Coast by Sunday. I have doubts it pushes through but the additional convergence at the surface could be another spark for some thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Friday: Storms Should Mostly Stay Away, Watch The Rip Currents
This will be the warmest day of the weekend, with the least amount of cloud cover. Some storms are possible, but should be widely scattered. There will also be a nice breeze coming off the Gulf, keeping things a little more comfortable for the first day of Hangout. Keep the sunscreen handy and stay hydrated out there because it will still be nice and warm. High temperature should be in the upper 80s.
In addition, with the southerly fetch the surf will be up. Be extremely careful going out into the surf, as the rip current threat will be elevated on Friday. This is going to be a theme through the weekend. For more information on the surf forecast, visit: NWS Mobile Beach Forecast Page
Saturday: Storms Widespread In The Afternoon
Moisture increases heading into Saturday, with precipitable water levels reaching almost 2″ in Gulf Shores. This leads to the potential for more widespread thunderstorm chances and very efficient rainmaking within those storms. Knowing that an upper level disturbance will be approaching from the west and providing lift, expect storms at some point during the day on Saturday. The good news is the extra cloud cover should keep the temperatures only in the mid 80s. Still keep the sunscreen on hand, since the clouds aren’t really going to save you from a burn this time of year.
Storms and winds still pulling from the south will unsurprisingly mean there will be another day of dangerous rip currents. Read more about rip current identification and what to do if caught in on here: GumboWx Rip Current Primer
Sunday: Storms Again And Rip Currents Still Uh…Ripping
There’s a little more uncertainty in the forecast on Sunday, since it is hard to figure out the exact placement of the cold front coming south just yet. It will likely stall north of the coast, but the proximity to the front means even more moisture. There won’t be as much forcing for ascent as the upper disturbance fades away. The NWS in Mobile currently has rain chances at 60% for Sunday in Gulf Shores. I can’t argue with that. So expect some storms. Highs will again be in the mid 80s, with some cloud cover and a breeze out of the south. Stay hydrated and find some shade when you can.
Once again, the rip current situation is probably going to justify a red flag on Sunday. Be extremely careful if you decide to venture out into the surf.
tl;dr version
The surf is going to be aggressive with rip currents all three days, and storms are likely Saturday and Sunday. Remember, you’re awfully exposed on the beach when lightning is popping. When you hear the thunder/see the lightning, get indoors where ever you can. There will also be abundant rain within those storms, so expect to get soaked a time or two over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Friday, with them dropping into the mid 80s for Saturday and Sunday due to increasing cloud cover. Even with the clouds, don’t forget the sunscreen! The breeze off the Gulf of Mexico all three days should at least keep things reasonably comfortable in the crowds.
Stay hydrated, be safe with the weather and the surf, and have a great time!
Also, keep track of all the local weather for Hangout Fest 2022 at: NWS Mobile’s Website
