Southwest Gets First Taste Of Monsoon This Weekend
Drought is dominating the southwestern United States, but much needed relief appears to be on the way. Not enough to end the drought, but much needed help for Arizona and New Mexico who are dealing with an already prolific fire season.
A deep trough cutting in off the Pacific combines with the backside of the death ridge cooking the eastern United States to provide flow from the Pacific to the Southwest. This will provide much needed moisture and will get some help to lift from the placement of the upper level disturbance to the west. This would be an early start but this summer feels two weeks ahead of schedule already, so why not?
Upper Level Flow Pumps In The Moisture
Trough moves toward the Great Basin off of the Pacific, providing lift and flow out of the southwest. The backside of the southern ridge is also providing for flow out of the southwest across the Four Corners. This will transport the moist airmass over the Pacific north into desert southwest. Models aren’t in full agreement as to how much rainfall and where. The European remains aggressive with dew points getting into the 60s in southern Arizona. The GFS is more restrained.
Still, the general expectation is monsoonal storms forming during the afternoon in the Southwest and over the Rockies this weekend.
PWats Approaching 1″ in the West. You’d Almost Call It Humid. Almost.
This, I assure you, is a beautiful sight to behold in the parched west. Hopefully this is the start of an abundant monsoon season. First and foremost to mitigate an already disastrous fire season. The second is to get some more water into the Colorado River watershed. Lake Powell and Mead need all the help they can get. So yes, it does mean a trip to the mountains this weekend will probably involve rain. It is extremely good for the region overall though to get this rainfall.
Plus, a good monsoon means a tremendous wildflower season.
tl;dr version
July like upper pattern across the middle of the country and a deep trough off the Pacific couple for a July like monsoon rain event, but in the middle of June. The sooner the better for the thirsty Southwest in the midst of a years long drought. It will bring rain and storms to the high terrain this weekend, and across much of southern Arizona. It won’t be a long lasting event, as the moisture and lift shift eastward by the start of next week. Still, the region can use any bit of moisture they can get.
